Thursday Morning Coffee - 9 May 2024

About four days ago I wrote how the Atlas Network Taxpayers Union Curia Poll was likely underway but David Farrar may have had to throw away polling data and start polling again - after Mark Mitchell and Christopher Luxon screwed up that Press Conference on Monday.

Last week was a shocking week for Luxon, Winston and Seymour with the TVNZ Verian poll knocking them out of government, confirmed by the Talbot poll - while Winston brought the Government into legal risk over a defamation case with Bob Carr.

David Farrar would not have been sure that was the best time to start his Curia poll and likely delayed until this week when the air had cleared a little and the NZ Herald had gotten into spinning out the JAG witch trial - forget about Winston etc - but then disaster struck and Luxon and Mark Mitchell messed up badly over that Corrections announcement.

Yes all was not well over at KiwiBlog and the Atlas Network shifted on its seat as they saw cracks in the death star so Luxon had gone into Tuesday morning's media rounds with the message "there was a minor mix up but he corrected it immediately".

That went down like a lead balloon and David Farrar must have licked the beads of sweat in his right wing eyebrows - cos Luxon was not making his job any easier.

Since the botch up over Corrections, Luxon has been fighting off questions about his $57,000 Office upgrade, trying to make out that a 7% water rates increase in Auckland is worth the lower credit ratings and higher interest rates over the long term, ignoring a Hikoi outside parliament, making a fool of himself at Question Time despite Gerry's protection racket, and lashing out at TVNZ about questions over woke food.

By contrast Chris Hipkins has had strong TV Breakfast interviews and is a Prime Minister in waiting, pointing out the lack of progress when it comes to renewable energy, pointing out the deficiencies in Gerry Brownlee's rulings, highlighting the way Luxon is slashing the Pay Equity Taskforce and making a stand over allowing people to enrol to vote on election day.

The difference between the two is stark, one is able to admit mistakes and say I do not know, answer with nuance, think on his feet, fill in blanks with his in-depth knowledge about a wide range of relevant topics, cut the crap and give candid direct answers to questions - while the other - is Christopher Luxon.

Gerry is throwing his...no, best I don't say that...Gerry is taking the stick to Green Party females to protect Luxon - because he is so exposed during Question Time.

The old general question which leaves Luxon wide open "Does he stand by all his Government statements and actions?", followed by a "Yes" is suddenly not okay for a Green Party female to ask after Luxon asked it for the past two years perfectly okay.

Worse yesterday Gerry had no issue with Chippy asking this question - cos Gerry knows he can't bite Chippy or he will get bitten back. So he picks on the Maori woman...

New Zealand has to think back a long way to find a worse Prime Minister - one who is so light on detail, so under informed, so dedicated to the PR techniques he was indoctrinated in about never answering questions directly - and always talking your recycled talking points - to get frequency and repetition of message.

The foot in the door carpet salesman routine is wearing thin on the right and by God - the left were over it two years ago - and now just shaking its head like "I told you so Jessica".

Madly polls still put Luxon ahead of Hipkins as our preferred PM which is some kind of election "incumbent resentment hangover" - because it is not about merit nor performance. In time that perception hangover will fade and Luxon's lousy leadership cancer will metastasis.

Luxon is going down while Chippy will rise along with Chlõe.

In the meantime partisan media and the Government are working hard during the polling period to turn these polls around with the next Curia poll.

Thomas the turd polisher has been working hard to suggest Auckland's water services deal is cheaper than 3 Waters in the very short term, because someone has to cut David Farrar and Atlas a break.

Healdines screamed that Todd McClay had won something over at UAE but it was just a fart in the desert.

Maiki bashed the Greens Political Management of JAG - to try and appease the foaming hate of the DumbTown dogs who could talk about nothing else - after Maiki told them they would talk and turbulence was ahead. Picture fangs and biting and snapping as the TV screen fogs up.

But now David Seymour is pretending to save school lunches by walking back everything he told his gimps about abolishing free lunches - and wasteful spending - and sure enough kids will not get the same nutrition after Seymour cut $100 Million for tax cuts out of the equation - and laughably created a fiscal cliff ( time limited funding ) straight after Luxon had vowed his Government would never do that.

The flip flopping and walking back is hilarious but it is sad that many people who produce the school lunches and do a sterling job are losing their jobs and for that - I dislike these posing, prancing, neoliberal arse wipes.

The latest "Woke Food" BS introduced by Seymour has the nation mocking him and Luxon is once again trying to pull the "there's more going on in this country" routine as he has the nerve to lecture the media rather than his own Coalition partner.

The sales pitch by Big Oil and Gas industry to keep us mining and digging for fossil fuels went below the radar yesterday as there was a virtal media silence about it....Barbara Chapman will be pleased.

The three headed Taniwha is one unstable beast and Luxon is no leader - as he hangs on for the ride and David Farrar has to decide whether to use last week's polling data and join it up with the "Not so bad days" data this week...to cobble together a win - a comeback of sorts ( within the margin of error after his secret Atlas Network weightings are applied ).

The perception that the Government is delivering as planned has been shot to bits and now a cold snap frosts the mood - which is not easy going for a Government pollster.

If Curia release a poll with Winston under 5% and National neck and neck with Labour then the truth will out - and that would never do ....so it's all tricky to the dicky as the numbers need a massage.

So far Audrey has minimised her criticism of Luxon and tried to protect him, blaming Mitchell and most of the political team at the NZ Herald have looked the other way over Winston's defamation case while pumping up the JAG witch trial.

There's nothing that would justify a comeback by National, Act and NZ First since the TVNZ 1News Verian poll - instead - the results should be the same or worse by now.

The Curia poll is usually released on the 10th of the month - so expect it tomorrow or Saturday - whenever the audience is biggest.

Yes I know who cares about polls, but these are the polls of our lives - like billionaire influence through the hourglass - and they all add up to determine the public mood about how their country is being run - or run into the ground as is the case right now.

That's enough for one coffee.

Thursday Morning Coffee

Morena

G